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In brief

  • Ripple (XRP): XRP is moving in a longer-term downtrend, and a bounce toward $1.25 is likely before further weakness.
  • Hyperliquid (HYPE): The price is below $80 after a 9% drop, even though the platform applied to become a U.S. futures commission merchant.
  • Stellar (XLM): XLM has fallen toward $0.157, and a break below $1.5 could open the way to further losses.

The cryptocurrency market remains under pressure, as most larger altcoins have corrected: large caps lost around 5% on average in the last 24 hours. Key levels have not been broken yet, but the overall trend is still bearish, despite yesterday's recovery.

XRP's Bearish Cross

From a technical standpoint, XRP has moved further into a downtrend, driven by more liquidations of long positions. According to the Nov. 5 snapshot, more than $12 million worth of longs has been liquidated. While the number itself is not critical, the long liquidations suggest that the asset saw an influx of buying, but it was quickly shut down.

The XRP Ledger activated the fixCleanup3_4_0 amendment on November 4 at 14:52 UTC. It removed an exploit that, under certain conditions, let accounts authorized to burn an issuer's tokens also mint them. The native supply of XRP has not been affected, luckily, so illicit actors have not used the exploit.

According to the technical analysis, the price is struggling to hold the important psychological threshold: $1.2 has already been broken, and XRP now trades at approximately $1.2.

The volume influx on the move toward the 21 EMA suggested a possible improvement in market conditions, but low volume on Friday, during the transition into the weekend trading session, disrupted any bullish plans.

As for the future, XRP is clearly moving in a longer-term downtrend; however, we will most likely see a local bounce toward $1.25. An EMA cross between the 100 EMA and the 50 EMA would simply be a signal of further price weakness and trend acceleration (most likely down).

The XRP Ledger has seen substantial growth in various on-chain metrics, which, unfortunately, does not give the price enough support. A lot of the Ledger activity appears to be automated, either trading bots or sophisticated LLM models. The market is mostly driven by speculative interest rather than fundamental network usage.

Hyperliquid's Minor Bounce on Futures Registration

Hyperliquid fell by almost 9% on Nov. 5 and is now trading below $80, balancing on the 100 EMA, which has been broken temporarily. From a fundamental standpoint, Hyperliquid Strategies (PURR) disclosed that it has applied to become a U.S. futures commission merchant. If approved, it would be able to bring U.S. clients directly to the perpetual markets deployed on Hyperliquid.

In addition to this substantial regulatory milestone, Hyperliquid reported $620 million in quarterly net income, including $803 million in unrealized HYPE gains. Before that, on Oct. 29, Hyperliquid announced a separate ICE-Trade agreement; more details are available on the SEC's official website.

From a technical standpoint, on the daily HYPE/USDT chart, the price has bounced somewhat from a local psychological support level of approximately $77. It has been a recovery point for Hyperliquid, but, unfortunately, it is unlikely to hold if more selling pressure appears.

RSI, as a momentum indicator, is moving toward the 40 zone, so any surge of bearish pressure here could be short-lived if it is mostly speculative. However, with volume rising during the descending local trend, the bearish trend is being reinforced.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) lost its pace by the end of September, and a lower high formed in the first days of October, which is essentially the market's main signal of the end of the rally. Despite the spike at the beginning of November, it is still a lower high, which means the bearish trend is not going anywhere.

This is a relatively hard prediction to make, considering the unpredictable nature of the market. Unfortunately, the price has barely any support left, and the next support is the 200 EMA (black line on the chart), which coincides with the $68 price level.

Volume, on the other hand, is falling, which is either a normal tendency before the weekend trading session or a sign of a weakening trend for now.

Key price levels for HYPE are: $80 as the closest psychological support level, $68 as the 200 EMA, and $89 as the first psychological resistance level. The trendline resistance is at approximately $84, so a breakthrough there should become a foundation for a price recovery.

Stellar (XLM) Leveraged Longs Adds More Fuel

After Stellar (XLM) fell toward $0.157, there is a good chance that we are seeing accumulation or at least a transition into a sideways trend. The moving averages are not converging, which signals trend acceleration, and in this case it is a bearish one. Whenever moving averages converge, volatility is more likely to spike.

The trend on Stellar is accelerating, while volume remains relatively low and neutral.

It is no coincidence that XLM saw a trend slowdown at approximately $0.15, as it coincides with the point where the previous trend started. The death cross that occurred at the end of October is also a bearish signal.

It was followed by a spike in trading volume, which confirms the significance of the indicator and suggests that the trend may continue.

The latest network milestone for XLM is the release of Bell (Protocol 30), which was set to go live on testnet on November 3. The key change it brought to the network was post-quantum signature verification for smart contracts and millisecond ledger timestamps.

However, the mainnet validator vote, which will make the update available to users on the live network, is set to take place on November 23 at 17:00 UTC.

The bearish price performance on the market was followed by a recorded 500,000 XLM long liquidation. But considering the sheer volume of XLM on exchanges, a sub-1 million liquidation barely affects the price and will most likely have a very minor effect on the market.

From the momentum standpoint, RSI is already at a local bottom, and a further drop is possible, despite RSI already sliding to around 30. An oversold RSI is not really an issue when there is profitable capital present.

Considering the behavior of the market, there is a good chance that most of the buying support was at 1.5-1.6, so a break below the $1.5 support level could trigger a further decline, with a possible acceleration toward $1, though this is unlikely and possible only in a very bearish market.