A major piece of legislation that will establish a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies is unlikely to become a law by year end, Kalshi traders speculate.
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which was passed with bipartisan support in the House in July 2025, is set for a procedural vote in the Senate on Sept. 15.
The White House has been turning up the heat on lawmakers to push the legislation through, with President Donald Trump calling for Congress to pass "a fair version of the Clarity Act" just last week.
The Clarity Act would spell out a regulatory framework for digital commodities. The Securities and Exchange Commission oversees securities, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission handles derivatives, including futures and prediction markets. Both agencies have issued guidance on crypto assets but there are no explicit boundaries on which agency tackles what.
Even as bitcoin has surged more than 20% in the past week, propelled by Trump's push for the Clarity Act, Kalshi traders see a less than 25% chance that the measure will become a law by the end of the year.
They see less than 50% odds that it can be implemented by April 2027.
Paul Atkins, chairman of the SEC, and Michael Selig, chairman of the CFTC, were present at a meeting between Trump and crypto industry leaders last week. At the first CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee meeting last Thursday, Selig said the agency would take matters into its own hands if the Clarity Act fails to pass in the Senate.
"If Clarity continues to stall because of Democrat obstruction, the CFTC will utilize its existing authorities to begin establishing a regime for crypto asset markets. We owe it to the American people to do so," he said.
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