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Although "Uptober" is still one of the most well-known seasonal patterns in cryptocurrency, 2025 served as a helpful reminder that October is far from always bullish. Bitcoin started October 2025 at about $119,000 and initially followed the seasonal narrative exactly, hitting a record above $126,000.
Will it repeat the record?
Strong demand for ETFs supported the move, with U.S. spot Bitcoin funds bringing in about $4.7 billion during the first half of the month. The setup then broke down. A fresh U.S.-China trade dispute sparked a violent risk-off move, including the biggest cryptocurrency liquidation event on record at the time.
After seven years of positive October returns, Bitcoin fell toward $105,000 and ended October down about 4%. While broader altcoin benchmarks fared much worse, Ethereum lost roughly 6% to 7%.
But historically, October has continued to be exceptionally strong for Bitcoin. In ten out of the thirteen years between 2013 and 2025, Bitcoin ended October higher, with an average return of about 19%.
Thus, October 2026 starts against a completely different backdrop than the previous year. Bitcoin has already gained roughly 9% in September and recently reached an eight-month high above $87,000, after rising about 25% in August. ETF inflows have increased, and short covering and better liquidity have sped up the transition.
Altcoins lead the way
Assets like Solana, XRP, NEAR, LINK, and Zcash have already seen significant September gains, and Ethereum has also broken higher following its August rally.
That creates both opportunity and risk. Although the market has more momentum going into October than it did a few months ago, a significant increase in optimism has already been factored in. A continuation toward higher levels is plausible if ETF demand remains positive and macro conditions do not deteriorate, but another straight-line acceleration would also leave the market increasingly vulnerable to leverage-driven corrections.
Thus, the key takeaway from 2025 is simple: seasonality can support an established trend, but it cannot counteract a significant macro shock. October 2026 is off to a bullish start, but how long that momentum lasts will be far more important than the term "Uptober."