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Bitcoin’s Hold Above $80,000 Hinges on Jackson Hole as Resistance Builds at $81,700-$83,000 [Kang Min-seung’s Trade Now]- Bitcoin is still battling around $80,000, with resistance concentrated in the $81,700-$83,000 range and support seen at $77,000 and $67,300.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs have extended their net inflow streak to nine trading days and on-chain accumulation has continued, but investor sentiment remains cautious because of the rise in the PCE price index and uncertainty over interest rates.
- The market sees remarks by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole as a key variable for the September FOMC rate path and for risk assets, especially whether Bitcoin can break through selling pressure in the low-$80,000 range.
Bitcoin recently climbed to the $80,000 level on spot exchange-traded fund inflows and on-chain accumulation, but the advance is being tested again as inflation concerns and caution ahead of Jackson Hole keep selling pressure clustered near that mark.
The market is watching the $81,000-$83,000 range as a key resistance zone. On the downside, a break below $77,000 could sap momentum from the recent rebound.
As of 6:33 p.m. on Aug. 28, Bitcoin traded at $79,456 on Binance’s USDT market, down about 0.41% from a day earlier. On Upbit, it changed hands at about 109.8 million won. The kimchi premium, which tracks the price gap between overseas and South Korean exchanges, was about 0.87%.
Nvidia Tailwind Fails to Revive Risk Appetite as Jackson Hole, Oil Keep Markets on Edge
Global technology stocks advanced after strong Nvidia earnings, but sentiment toward risk assets has yet to rebound in a meaningful way.
Caution persists in the crypto market as geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz coincide with wariness ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting.
Qatar’s Foreign Ministry and other officials said on Aug. 27 that Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani visited Iran to discuss a temporary joint shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz and mine-clearing measures. Even so, the US and Iran remain far apart on restoring normal passage through the strait. Iran is demanding the revival of a previous memorandum of understanding as a condition for reopening the waterway, while the US has ruled out renewed talks and is maintaining economic pressure on Tehran.
Inflation remains another overhang. The US personal consumption expenditures price index for July, released on Aug. 26, rose 3.7% from a year earlier, while core PCE climbed 3.3%, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
If disinflation continues to stall, concern will grow that the Fed’s restrictive stance could last longer and long-term Treasury yields could stay elevated.
Markets are now focused on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole keynote speech, scheduled for 11 p.m. Korea time on Aug. 28. It will be Warsh’s first appearance at Jackson Hole since taking office. Investors are watching how he assesses inflation that remains above target and the recent rise in long-term yields. His view on the Treasury Department’s expanded bond buybacks, aimed at stabilizing long-term rates, is also in focus. The speech could reshape expectations for the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting and risk appetite across markets.
CME FedWatch showed interest-rate futures pricing in a 66.2% chance that the benchmark rate will be left unchanged in September, versus a 33.8% chance of an increase. Nvidia’s earnings helped lift sentiment around technology shares, but markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to the Fed’s message until uncertainty over rates and oil eases.
US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Extend Net Inflow Streak to Nine Days as On-Chain Data Shows Limited Overheating
US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted net inflows for nine straight trading days from Aug. 17 through Aug. 27. Cumulative net inflows over that span totaled $3.0442 billion.
Sentiment also improved on policy expectations after President Donald Trump signaled support for advancing the CLARITY Act and mentioned the possibility of national-level crypto purchases. Hopes that Treasury buybacks could help steady long-term yields added support.
The rebound began with large-scale short liquidations, and ETF inflows then helped sustain the move, according to some market analysis. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode said the largest one-day short liquidation since its data series began in 2019 occurred on Aug. 19. It added that 85% of all liquidations during the rebound were concentrated in short positions. Glassnode also said US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $2.23 billion during the rebound, marking the strongest inflow stretch of the year.
Glassnode said Bitcoin moved off exchanges during the rebound and buying spread beyond large holders to smaller investors. That suggests the rally, which began with short covering, broadened into accumulation across holder groups and developed a wider demand base.
Santiment, another on-chain analytics firm, said investor sentiment has not kept pace with the price rally. Bitcoin surged from about $62,800 on Aug. 16 to about $78,900 on Aug. 26, but weighted sentiment turned negative again.
Strong rallies typically come with rising optimism. This time, signs of overheating have remained limited relative to the scale of the advance.
Bitcoin Fights Around $80,000 as $83,000 Emerges as Near-Term Pivot
As Bitcoin rebounds toward $80,000, the market is focused on whether it can break through selling pressure in the low-$80,000 range. After the sharp short-term rally, traders are also watching whether key support levels can hold.
From a technical standpoint, $81,700 is a key resistance level. Market analyst Julien Pineda said it is the most important upside barrier above the psychological $80,000 threshold. Failure to clear that area could trigger a short-term pullback. On the downside, $73,600 and $67,300 are major support zones. Pineda said $67,300 is a critical floor, and a drop to that level would undermine confidence in the latest rebound and could push Bitcoin back into a range-bound pattern.
Bitfinex also identified the low-$80,000 range as a near-term inflection point. The exchange said Bitcoin could generate a fresh bullish signal if it closes above its intraday high from May of $82,818 for two straight sessions and ETF inflows continue to support demand. A renewed rejection in the low-$80,000 range, especially if accompanied by rising volume, could weaken the momentum of the current rebound.
On the downside, Bitfinex pointed to the $77,100-$77,800 zone as a short-term line of defense. The exchange said the recent rebound structure could remain intact if Bitcoin holds that range even after the Jackson Hole speech and options expiry.
Some analysts see Bitcoin as having completed a basing process and entered a breakout phase over the medium to long term. Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton said Bitcoin has emerged from an oversold phase but has not yet entered overheated territory. Short-term momentum is strong, and the medium-term trend has improved since the low.
She said the basing pattern that began in June was completed after another test of the lows in July and that a breakout from the trading range is now underway.
Stockton also viewed Bitcoin’s move above the 200-day moving average, which acted as resistance in May, as a positive development. She said Bitcoin’s uptrend could outlast gold’s. In the short term, however, whether Bitcoin can break through the low-$80,000 supply zone after the Jackson Hole speech remains the key marker for whether the rally can continue.
Kang Min-seung, Bloomingbit reporter [email protected]
[email protected] journalist | Writer of Trade Now & Altcoin Now, must-read content for investors.