Bitcoin has slipped below the price paid by its recent buyers while the capital that could lift it keeps leaving, according to Glassnode’s latest Week On-chain report.

Recent buyers underwater

Glassnode said bitcoin now trades near $74K, below the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $75.6K.

“At the September high, nearly all short-term holder coins were in profit. Today about 35% are, and those who sell are doing so at a small loss on average.”

Bitcoin has also fallen behind equities, as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 have recovered above their election-day close while bitcoin is still down about 5%.

Capital heads for the exit

Over the past 30 days, total stablecoin supply has fallen by $14.2B, the fastest contraction since June 2022.

“A shrinking supply means holders are redeeming stablecoins for dollars and taking that cash out of the market, which leaves less fuel for a rally.”

The US spot ETFs have also turned to redemptions, recording $1.6B in net outflows over the past 20 sessions, though Glassnode described the stretch as still shallow next to past ones.

Meanwhile, the Coinbase Premium has stayed negative on a 30-day average through the whole slide from the September high, with the discount now the deepest since February.

“In past rallies, the premium ran positive as US buyers paid up for Bitcoin. Today they are not.”

Leverage cleared near price

On the positive side, the slow grind lower has cleared most long leverage near price, while the largest liquidation cluster sits well below, between $59.5K and $62.6K.

“Meanwhile, open interest has rebuilt to its level at the September high even as price fell about 15%, which suggests traders have added short positions into the decline.”

Since the November 5 sell-off, buy orders within 5% of price on Binance and Coinbase have outweighed sell orders in every hour.

Wallets holding 100 to 1K BTC and 1K to 10K BTC have also started accumulating, although every other cohort is still reducing its holdings.

Levels to watch

Glassnode said a reclaim of the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $75.6K would support the view that August marked the start of a higher-timeframe reversal.

“A sustained break below $73K, the floor of last week’s band, would point to a longer consolidation, and a close below the June low at $58.5K would undo the August trend change.”