ING economists Adam Antoniak and David Havrlant expect Poland’s final September CPI, due Wednesday, to confirm headline inflation at 4% year-on-year, with core inflation easing and price growth concentrated in fuels and related services. They note improved short-term inflation prospects thanks to renewed cuts in fuel excise duty and VAT, and project headline CPI in a 3.5–4.0% range by year-end.
Headline CPI seen near 4 percent
"The final September CPI reading released on Wednesday should confirm that headline inflation rose to 4% YoY, while core inflation eased, indicating that broad-based inflationary pressure is still absent and price growth remains concentrated in fuels and closely related goods and services."
"Yet the ongoing energy crisis may trigger a jump in regulated prices for households from the beginning of 2027."
"The short-term inflation outlook has improved with authorities cutting excise duty and VAT on fuels again, this time until the end of 2026."
"As a result, headline CPI should run within the 3.5-4.0% YoY range by the end of the year."
"We forecast that in August the current account deficit was slightly higher than €2bn, but slightly lower than in August 2025."
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