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Brent: Geopolitics support crude and cracks – Societe Generale

Societe Generale’s Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem highlight that Brent has surged as US-Iran tensions, Trump’s rhetoric and Houthi blockade threats lift risk premia. Crack spreads in Asia and US have outperformed as re…

2 min read

Euro loses momentum as US Dollar recovers from intraday lows

EUR/USD edges lower on Monday after reversing earlier gains as markets swing between risk-on and risk-off sentiment. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1408, easing from an intraday high of 1.1449.

3 min read

Japanese Yen weakens as renewed Middle East tensions lift US Dollar

USD/JPY trades around 162.55 on Monday at the time of writing, up 0.10% on the day. After an initial pullback in the US Dollar (USD), the pair regains momentum as geopolitical concerns return to the forefront and suppor…

3 min read

Dollar Little Changed as Crude Prices Soar and T-note Yields Fall

The dollar index (DXY00) finished little changed on Friday. The dollar found some support from Friday’s +4% jump in WTI crude oil prices, which raises inflation expectations and could prompt the Fed to pursue tighter mo…

5 min read

LatAm FX: Carry supports resilience against US Dollar - BNY

BNY’s Geoff Yu sees Latin American currencies underpinned by strong balance-of-payments positions and attractive carry, even as global equity nerves rise. Yu notes that conflict-era inflows have created a solid buffer a…

2 min read

Euro: ECB pause seen limiting downside against US Dollar – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the ECB to leave rates at 2.25% this week after June’s 25 bps hike, maintaining a data-dependent stance without new projections. Markets fully price a September hike …

1 min read

Canadian Dollar: Inflation cools as BoC stays patient – RBC

Royal Bank of Canada’s (RBC) Abbey Xu notes that Canadian inflation eased in June, with Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowing to 2.8% year-over-year and energy prices reversing part of their earlier surge. Underlying measu…

1 min read

Fed: On-hold stance with upside hike risk – TD Securities

TD Securities expects the Federal Reserve to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged through 2026, as inflation stays above target and the labor market stabilizes. The bank notes a mixed Fedspeak backdrop, a blurrier reaction…

2 min read

Oil: Diplomatic risk keeps prices supported – BNY

BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that Iran’s signals of continued military response alongside active mediation keep the Middle East conflict in a managed but unstable phase. This backdrop leaves Oil prices higher after recent strik…

1 min read

Australian Dollar: Labor data seen reinforcing RBA pause – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects Australia’s June labor force report to show a modest 15k job gain and unemployment steady at 4.4%, slightly above the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) projection. Fu…

1 min read

US Dollar Index: Higher energy supports DXY recovery – ING

ING’s Chris Turner notes that deteriorating Gulf headlines and higher energy prices are keeping the Dollar supported, even if US Dollar Index (DXY) remains about 1% below its June peak. Softer United States (US) Consume…

2 min read