Price performance tends to flip bullish four months after peak whale withdrawals from exchanges — and the next cycle is almost here, data shows.
Bitcoin (BTC) investors should buy BTC when whales do one thing in particular — bull runs begin several months later.
That was the latest insight from Ki Young Ju, CEO of on-chain analysis resource CryptoQuant, who revealed that when whales withdraw Bitcoin from exchanges, it’s time to enter the market.
Analyst: Buy BTC before whale cycle is up
Uploading two charts comparing Bitcoin’s 2017 and 2019 bull runs, Ki noted that the start of each uptrend came four months after a peak in whale withdrawals.
The data came via CryptoQuant’s seven-day moving average whale exchange withdrawals metric.
“BUY #BTC when whales send bitcoins out of the exchange,” he summarized in Twitter comments.
“The BULL market usually starts four months after the exchange average withdrawal hits year-high.”
The hint could well prove timely, coming three months after Bitcoin’s most recent annual withdrawal peak in March. If the trend repeats — amid a slew of other encouraging signs for BTC— a bull market should begin in July.
Bitcoin average exchange withdrawals comparison. Source: Ki Young Ju/ Twitter
Bull trend factors converge for Bitcoin
As Cointelegraph reported, other metrics also suggest that Bitcoin is rebounding from a price bottom. Notably, exchange reserves are now back near their lowest since December 2018, when BTC/USD traded at $3,100.
Miners are also selling less BTC, having briefly sold more than they earned in the aftermath of May’s block subsidy halving.
More broadly, investors have spent 2020 accumulating BTC, with 90% of days seeing net asset increases.
Last week, Ki described how whales tended to wait for quiet periods on exchanges to sell coins, potentially to attract investor attention to their actions.