10-day realized volatility hits its lowest since just before Bitcoin price fell to $3,100 in late 2018, sparking fresh bearish fears.
Bitcoin (BTC) could be heading for a repeat of its late 2018 sell-off, data warns as realized volatility reaches almost three-year highs.
Uploading fresh charts on July 6, on-chain analyst Skew drew concerning comparisons to Bitcoin in its 2018 bear market.
Bitcoin 10-day realized volatility dips to 20%
Analyzing realized volatility, Skew noted that the last time the metric hit 20%, a mass capitulation event followed, during which BTC/USD hit $3,100.
“Last time we reached that level, we had the great sell-off of November 2018 shortly after,” analysts warned.
Realized volatility refers to historical volatility measurements, with 20% on the 10-day reading marking a 33-month low.
Bitcoin realized volatility 3-year chart. Source: Skew
As Cointelegraph reported last week, the lack of volatility has come hand in hand with declining volumes in Bitcoin, which analysts already believe will soon spark a “big move” up or down.
BTC/USD is repeatedly testing $9,000 support, while attention is focusing on defending $8,600 to avoid a larger drop.
Gold primed to challenge all-time highs
While Bitcoin looks shaky, the opposite is true for gold, with commentators eagerly anticipating a bullish breakout.
With stocks booming but uncertainty remaining about long-term sustainability, gold is challenging its all-time highs from 2011.
Bitcoin vs. Gold 1-year chart. Source: Skew
For Bitcoin skeptic gold bug Peter Schiff, the investment choice was obvious once again as the week began.
“Gold seems to be chipping away at resistance just below $1,800 while Bitcoin is simultaneously chipping away at support just above $9,000,” he wrote as part of a Twitter survey on Sunday.
“I expected both resistance and support to give way, with #gold surging as #Bitcoin collapses.”
Peter Schiff’s Twitter survey results. Source: Twitter
Respondents appeared to disagree, with almost 50% of the 9,800 participants forecasting both gold and Bitcoin to continue climbing.