Tone Vays says $45,000 to $50,000 is a reasonable bull market target for Bitcoin if it surges past $20,000.
Tone Vays, the well-known Bitcoin (BTC) derivatives trader, believes Bitcoin will stay above $10,000 for the rest of 2020.
At the start of the year, Vays said he was skeptical BTC would break $20,000 in 2021 but now he thinks it’s possible for the top cryptocurrency to overtake its record all-time high.
If the price of Bitcoin surpasses $20,000 in the medium-term, Vays said history shows it tends to double. Based on the historical price cycles, he said the $45,000 to $50,000 range is a reasonable target.
The historical cycle of the Bitcoin price. Source: TradingView.com
During an interview with IGTV, Vays said:
“Every time Bitcoin breaks a prior all-time high, especially when it takes years to break that all-time high, it tends to usually more than double. So I think $45,000 to $50,000 is a reasonable target.”
Bitcoin price may surge once $20K breaks
Throughout 2020, Vays said Bitcoin would likely stay above $10,000 and gear towards $20,000 the following year. He noted:
“In the beginning of the year, I thought that even next year would be a struggle to break $20k. Now I think it’s pretty likely that we’ll break $20k next year.”
As on-chain analysts have said throughout August, the $10,000 area has become a strong support level for Bitcoin. As long as a key psychological level at $10,000 is intact, an extended uptrend becomes more likely.
Vays also drew a comparison between Bitcoin and gold. He emphasized that gold broke its all-time high and saw a 5% upside past its previous high fairly quickly.
The trader explained that Bitcoin could do something similar over the medium to long-term when it breaks its previous all-time high at $20,000. He stated:
“We are watching what’s happening with gold right now. Gold finally broke its all-time high, that it made ten years ago, just recently, and it went already $100 past that. So it went 5% more fairly quickly. So let’s see how fast gold goes up since breaking all-time high, and Bitcoin can do something similar.”
How far could Bitcoin go?
Various price models predict the price of Bitcoin to reach anywhere between $30,000 to $250,000 in the long-term.
According to Vays, he would be satisfied if the next top of Bitcoin is at around $45,000. Historically, Bitcoin has seen a major breakout past its previous record high, reach a new peak, then correct. A rapid upsurge to unsustainable price levels could leave BTC vulnerable to sharp drops. He added:
“Do we think we go as high as $100,000? I’m not willing to make that statement. For me, I would be happy if the next top was around $45,000, and that can happen quickly.”
A consistent theme that supplements the uptrend of Bitcoin is a favorable global macro backdrop that also complements gold. Fear towards rising inflation and economic uncertainty could sustain the momentum of Bitcoin.